On February 28, 2025, the Nonferrous Metals Processing Industry Association released the 2024 aluminum processing material production data, revealing the dynamic changes in China's downstream aluminum demand. Data show that the total aluminum production growth rate reached 4.4%, and the compound growth rate (CAGR) in the past five years was 3.9%, confirming the steady demand for aluminum as a basic material. Although the real estate sector has a significant drag effect on aluminum demand, the output of industrial aluminum profiles has surpassed architectural aluminum profiles for the first time, and the growth of demand in other fields has provided important support for the industry. Looking forward to 2025, the growth rate of primary aluminum supply is expected to drop below 2%, the supply-demand gap may further widen, and aluminum prices and smelting profits may continue to run at high levels.
I.Structural adjustment of downstream aluminum demand
Industrial aluminum profiles rise to fill the gap in real estate
In 2024, the real estate sector dragged down aluminum demand by 6%, but the output of industrial aluminum profiles surpassed architectural aluminum profiles for the first time, becoming a key source of incremental growth. Industrial aluminum profiles are widely used in machinery and equipment, transportation and other fields. Their growth not only makes up for the decline in the construction field, but also reflects the driving effect of my country's manufacturing transformation and upgrading on aluminum demand.
Lightweight and functional materials promote application expansion
The penetration rate of aluminum in new energy, electronics and other fields continues to increase. As a lightweight structural material, aluminum is accelerating the process of replacing traditional materials in automobiles and aerospace, with its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, its application scenarios in power equipment and consumer electronics are constantly expanding. The simultaneous growth of demand in multiple fields highlights the strategic value of aluminum as a functional material.
The resilience of demand in other fields supports the overall situation
In addition to industrial profiles, the output of subdivided categories such as aluminum sheets, strips and foils, and aluminum foils has increased. For example, the home appliance sector has benefited from the continuation of the "national subsidy" policy, and aluminum consumption has remained stable, power investment has maintained a high growth rate, further driving the demand for aluminum in power transmission and transformation equipment. The structural adjustment of diversified demand has effectively alleviated the impact of fluctuations in a single field on the industry.
II. Supply and demand pattern and industry challenges in 2025
Demand growth is expected to remain in a stable range
The peak of primary aluminum supply exacerbates the contradiction between supply and demand
2025 is regarded as the peak of China's primary aluminum supply growth, and the annual supply growth rate is expected to be less than 2%. As the electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaches the policy ceiling, the release of new production capacity is limited, and the demand side maintains rigid growth, the industry is likely to face a supply and demand gap. Against this background, aluminum prices and smelting profits may remain high or even set a new high.
Risk factors are still uncertain
Global macroeconomic fluctuations may suppress the growth of aluminum demand, while rising energy prices and stricter environmental protection policies will push up smelting costs. In addition, the impact of upgraded safety production supervision on production capacity stability also needs to be closely monitored. The industry needs to cope with multiple challenges in the tight balance between supply and demand to lay a solid foundation for long-term development.